Preference Uncertainty: Elicitation and Implications
Keywords:
preference uncertainty, stochastic choice, procedure invariance, incomplete preferences, preference reversal, present biasSynopsis
This dissertation contains three studies to improve the understanding of decision-making under preference uncertainty. Many daily decisions involve trading off between conflicting objectives, where individuals may be uncertain about their preferences. Under preference uncertainty, individuals may exhibit stochastic choice by changing their decisions across repeated choices or by reporting a range of possible values when evaluating an asset. This dissertation contributes to the empirical investigation of preference uncertainty by proposing novel methods to reveal and measure it with incentives. These methods are applied in economic experiments to examine whether preference uncertainty can explain two economic anomalies: preference reversal and present bias.
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